In other words, a team that loses twice and wins once would have a record of 1-0 in Smith’s system, not 1-2 as would be expected. The result? A very risky system in which a single three-game losing streak can cripple your bankroll. Unfortunately none of that information is detailed under the “how it works” section of his website. Situs Judi Bola Online Resmi
His “Units Won” Results are Never Displayed or Disclosed
Smith doesn’t flaunt his units won on his website, but almost every page on the site makes mention of the 95% winning rate. The reason behind that is that his artificially inflated 95% winning record looks much better than what his units won results would. With this system you are constantly making large bets for small returns as you try to make up for previous losses. The Martingale System itself only “guarantees” a one unit profit in theory (the original wager), and the theory is reliant on having unlimited funds to wager.
A terrific explanation of why Martingale systems can be so dangerous can be found here.
This System Requires an Unlimited Bankroll for Marginal Success
Also known as a loss recuperation method, the martingale theory of wagering states that a win can be assured if a wager has even odds and a 50% chance of winning and each betting loss is doubled on the subsequent bet.
For example, if a $50 bet loses, you would bet $100 dollars to recoup those losses. If that fails, bet $200 on the next contest, and so on and so forth ad infinitum. For a $50 bettor with a $1,000 bankroll, this system would come to a harsh conclusion after just four losses in a row as you would already be in the hole by $550 ($50+$100+$200+$400=$550). At that point you would have just $450 remaining which is not enough to recoup your original losses. All that just to chase a $50 profit.
What’s more, this theory doesn’t even account for the vig/juice. The vig ensures that each bet has to be progressively larger in order to recoup previous losses. Following our previous example, you would essentially go broke after only four consecutive losses chasing a $50 profit if we assume the traditional 10% vig:
$55 bet to win $50 – $55 lost
$115 bet to win $105 ($55+$50) – $170 lost
$245 bet to win $220 ($115+$55+$50) – $415 lost
$520 to win $465 ($245+$115+$55+$50) – $935 lost
This also plays into what’s known as the gambler’s fallacy. Also referred to as the Monte Carlo fallacy, this theory surmises that if deviations from expected behavior are observed in repeated independent trials of a random process, future variations in the opposite direction are more probable. In other words, if you flip a coin ten times and heads comes up every time, many people will believe that the next result must be tails because the odds of heads coming up 11 times in a row is 0.000488 (0.5 to the 11th power). In fact, each coin flip is an independent event and that there is still a 50% chance of tails coming up on the 11th flip.
What You Can Expect by Following the Sports Betting Star
In reality, there are only three possible outcomes you can expect by using this system:
1) Wager a lot to win a little.
2) Wager a lot to lose a little
3) Wager a lot to lose everything.
The main factor in determining which outcome will apply to you is your bankroll and your luck. If your bankroll is large enough to make continuous large bets (1,000 times the size of your unit bet), than you will probably win a little in the long term. However, if your bankroll is that large, you are probably wise enough to realize this system is a scam and not worth your time.